P44 Permatang Pauh, Anwar wins

Aug 26 has made it into the current history of Malaysia as it marks the return of Anwar Ibrahim into Parliament after trouncing his BN opponent Arif Shah. The results are as follows:
Anwar - 31,195 votes
Arif Shah - 15,524
Hanafi, 92.
Majority - 15,671.
Voters - 58 459
Voters turnout - 47 410 or 81.1%
Racial breakdown: Malays 69.4%
Chinese 24.5%
Indians 6.0%
Others 0.1%

The win I believe would mark a new phase towards democratization and nation building in Malaysia.

1st August to Independence Day

1st August. Opposition Leader Dr Wan Azizah quit from her position yesterday, as Member of Parliament (MP) (Permatang Pauh) paving way for hubby cum de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to be in Parliament. With Independence Day looming in the horizon, the biggest concern is whether Anwar Ibrahim would be arrested. Would his independence be curtailed via bias use of the police force.

Election rule states that a by-election must be held within 60 days. I heard from reliable sources that Budget would be tabled in August prior to Aug 31st. August 29 to be exact. Based on that I am predicting that there would be two scenarios that would happen.

Scenario 1: Anwar would be arrested, charged and found guilty in the court of law got sodomy. This would dim his chances to stand for an election. Probably Wan Azizah will have to reprise her role as MP based on the strong ground support.

Scenario 2: Anwar stands for a by election and wins the seat hands down.
Deputy Premier Najib Razak for once admitted it would be tough to win by-election in Anwar's turf. Current hot favorite who may stand for Permatang Pauh is Ezam Noor. Common sense would tell you not to trap a lion in a lion's den. Premier cum UMNO president would need to find a scape goat to be sacrificed in at the lion's den. Annuar Musa was nore realistic wgen he commented that BN should simply boycott the by election. All this would most probably take place within Aug 1 to Independence Day that falls on 31 Aug. Only then can Anwar fullfil his dream of reclaiming Putrajaya on Sept 16.

Sodomy debacle

In the latest twist PUSRAWI stated that the medical examination done on Saiful Azlan Bukhari is not standard procedure for sodomy victims, despite details stated as was published by Malaysiakini. Anwar has refused to provide his DNA sample. It clearly indicates the buasness on the part of the police.

The best way now is to engage with parties that are neither pro BN nor pro Anwar. Since US has been keeping close watch on the developments here, Uncle Sam should be ruled out. Instead expertise from France and Britain can be roped in. At least these anal serials can end for once and forever.

As for the PDRM, it is high time for the force to go back to basics:- crime busting and regain public confidence.

Would Zulkifli win the petition?

Anwar Ibrahim has set his eyes on P18 Kulim Bandar-Baharu seat in the event a by-election is called to nullify the March 8 elections results. In that elections, Zulkifli Noordin of PKR beat Abdul Aziz Sheikh Fadzir 22,255 to 16,672.

BN is trying hard to stop PKR de facto leader from getting into Parliament via various methods including the sodomy charges, I wonder whether they are going to misuse the judiciary just as they had done in 1998. It would be easier, in a sense to dismiss the petition UMNO's Aziz Sheikh Fadzir and retain Zulkifli Noordin in that seat.

Zulkifli would win the seat and that would prevent Anwar from becoming a Member of Parliament and even forming the next government, for the time being.

Wait and see

They just don't get it

Anwar Ibrahim refused to undergo a DNA test in his arrest episode following the police report lodged against him by Saiful Bukhari Azlan. He and his counsel has since given a reason on why the former deputy PM ahs not allowed it to be so. Anwar Ibrahim cited the precedent case that involved him a decade ago.

While the police are considering the legal option, Premier Abdullah Badawi has joined the chorus calling Anwar to provide a sample of DNA. Foreign Minister Rais Yatim in a statement assured the sovereignty of law and justice would be maintained.

It is my view that the premier and his cabinet ministers have forgotten something. How would Anwar trust the police if they are alleged to have tampered with the evidence in 1998? I would not trust the police in this case since the Badawi administration has yet to implement the Independent Police Commission on Misconduct and Complaints (IPCMC)? To add salt to the injury, both the AG and IG are not even suspended from their jobs following Anwar’s police report against them?

As if this wasn’t enough the image of Malaysian judiciary to have been restored wholly in the post Lingam Tape period. Recommendation for the appointment and promotion of a judge is yet to be made by a judicial commission.

Thus Anwar leads with 3-0 scoreline.

Political conspiracy

Is there a political conspiracy orchestrated by individuals who walk along the corridors of power? Before venturing further into the topic, I would like to state that I am aware of the Sedition Act. At the same time many issues of public interest have been shrouded in cloud of secrecy that has led to conspiracy theorists.And there are instances when these 'conspiracy theorists' such as popular blogger and owner of Malaysia Today, Raja Petra Kamaruddin (RPK) are proven true.

Anwar Ibrahim (DSAI) was arrested. Here is what Nurul Izzah had to say about her dad's arrest. An arrest warrant has been issued for RPK. Several days earlier, Mohd Ezam Noor warned DSAI that he would reveal dark secrets of the latter. At the same time UMNO is also pushing for negotiations on Malay and Islam related issues with PAS knowing fully well that PAS disagreed to some developments in the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) alliance. It clearly looks like a divide and conquer strategy orchestrated by some people from UMNO. At the same time, the ACA had questioned the IGP and AG following a report that DSAI had made previously.

If UMNO led Barisan believes that DSAI is guilty of the sodomy charges, by all means present the evidence beyond reasonable doubts in the court of law without any attempt to influence the judiciary. A rumour that Penang Deputy Chief Minister I Fairus was stepping down was shown on Buletin Utama. He denied it. Is this a method to severe the alliance of PKR-DAP in Penang?

I am also unhappy over the manner DSAI was detained. Why is there a need for 15 jeeps of UTK to detain DSAI when Sankara Nair had mentioned yesterday that DSAI would give a statement in the police station. The police action clearly indicates their low level of professionalism. A flip flop police force for a flip flop prime minister.

Update: Does Khairy Jamaluddin have access to police reports lodged against Anwar? The plot thickens but rays of justice may diminish.

Hari ini jadi Perdana Menteri Esok Harga Minyak Turun

This was the title of the debate between PKR de facto leader Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim and Datuk Ahmad Shabberry Cheek, the Information Minister. The latter actually stated that he would resign if he failed to defend the government's stand.

The debate methodology and rules reminded of school. There was one glaring mistake on the part of the MC, Datuk Johan Jaafar as he did not announce the victorious candidate between the two. Shabbery deviated more than Anwar did and the moderator did not play a good role in ensuring that the arguments were related to the topic.

Though a fresh face in the cabinet, I want to praise Shabberry Cheek for standing up against a personality who is no stranger to debates. On the whole I felt that Anwar's argument were much more convincing. It would have been better if Anwar faced off with Abdullah Badawi, the PM on these issues as the latter is also Finance Minister I.
Based on the polls ran by Malaysiakini, where 19,000 people voted and 95% are of the opinion that Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim had won the debate.

Live debates

For the first time in Malaysian history there is going to be an open debate between two political personalities from opposition camp. Organised by Agenda Daily, an online Bahasa news website, it will feature Ahmad Shabbery Cheek, the Information Minister and de facto Opposition Leader, Anwar Ibrahim who would be debating an issue that is close to all Malaysians - the 78 sen fuel price hike. Shabbery Cheek would be defending the government's decision to raise the prices whereas Anwar would propose for the end of raise in fuel prices. After all Anwar's main campaign these days is a pledge to reduce fuel pricesafter taking office as Malaysian premier.

TV3 is telecasting the program live on 15.7.2008. Personally I would prefeer Second Finance Minister to defend the government's stand. Anwar himself preferred to debate this issue with premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi or deputy premier, Najib Tun Razak. On another note, I hope that the host/chair would not disrupt the flow of the arguments that is laid put by both debaters.

Also I do hope that TV3 does not delay the telecast by 8 seconds as that would be enough time for the broadcasting company to snip off parts that are pro opposition. This is due to the fact that TV3 has been more effective as a propaganda tool for the Barisan Nasional government compared to TV3.

."Opposition is playing dirty politics"

I saw that statement in the news roll on Bernama TV on July 05 2008. Look who is talking. It was stated by Najib, our Deputy Prime Minister who is being implicated in the Altantuya murder via two statutory declarations - Raja Petra Kamarudin of Malaysia Today and P Balasubramaniam's flipsy flopsy statutory declaration. In the initial stages of the Altantuya murder trial, the prosecution team also went ot great length to state Najib's non involvement.

I am not an Anwarista but it would be best for Najib to keep a low profile and eventually back off from claiming the title of prime minister-in-waiting instead of giving such a statement.

Anwar & the US Factor

The US has come out strongly urging that there be no political persecution against Anwar in the light of the new sodomy allegations by his former aide. It is a known fact that the US has always favoured Anwar over Dr Mahathir. So this statement from Uncle Sam is nothing surprising.

A decade ago, then Vice President, Al Gore, openly supported Anwar's call for Reformasi in the APEC summit that was hosted by Kuala Lumpur under the Mahathir administration. During the phase of Anwar's political wilderness he was offered a position as a visiting professor at Georgetown University in the US.

Most recently Alfred Wolfowitz nominated Anwar Ibrahim as one of the Top 100 leaders in the Time magazine.

My question is, would Democrat candidate, Barack Obama support Anwar? If he does, wouldn't Mr Obama's campaign be affected since he has been denying being a Muslim despite having lived and studied there? Would the Jew factor, that plays a key role in decisions, swing their support for Robert McCain of the Republicans?

These questions have no answers at this point of time but there would definitely be no harm in Obama having a close relationship with Anwar once both leaders are in the position of power. On this note also see our Home Minister rambling that Anwar complains to Uncle Sam everything something happens to him.

Anwar Ibrahim factor in PR

Li Tsin had already questioned the illogical scenario of the police report against Anwar Ibrahim for sodomy. I would like to look at it from a political perspective. Would Pakatan Rakyat(PR) be able strongly hold together?

The losers in this case would definitely be Abdullah Badawi and the BN government as pointed out by Ong Kian Meng and Oon Yeoh.

As for PR, the current status of it is similar to BBA a decade ago. The coalition has not been registered as the BN. There are no mechanisms to resolve differences as seen in the spate between Kedah MB Azizan (PAS)and Penang CM Guan Eng (DAP).

The strongest factor gluing all PKR, DAP and PAS is Anwar Ibrahim. Thus this new set of sodomy allegations against him has put the PR under the limelight instead of the BN that had been on their toes lately.