The battle for two hills

The battle for the two hills - Bukit Gantang and Bukit Selambau is an opportunity for BN to regain the seats that was previously won by Pakatan Rakyat candidates (though V Arumugam in Bukit Selambau won as an Independent before joining PKR).

Bukit Gantang
The Bukit Gantang parliamentary seat would witness a stand – off between UMNO and PAS. Election campaign issues may most likely to be raised is a stand off between people’s democracy for PAS and UMNO’s Daulat Tuanku (protecting the sovereignty of Perak monarchy). These are the issues arising from the ongoing political crisis in Perak. PAS, in return, may use the "Kill Indians or the snake first" as the assemblywoman has been appointed as Exco to win Indian votes.

Unlike Permatang Pauh, the Perak government will not be galvanised to rally for the PAS candidate. Going by the trends of previous two by – elections, there may be one or two Independent candidates but their chances would be nil. Chances for Bukit Gantang parliamentary by – election to be held on a weekend are pretty high as that would be in favour of the current BN administration.

Bukit Selambau
As for Bukit Selambau, MIC would again face off PKR’s Indian candidate. The state government may announce a public holiday if the by - election is held on a week day similar to Guan Eng’s decision during Permatang Pauh by – election. As for issues, PKR would most probably be able to use V Arumugam’s presence as evidence of Barisan’s alleged dirty politics. In addition Arumugam had previously lodged a police report alleging certain parties who were lobbying for him to defect. To counter that, MIC and the BN machinery may remind electorates that Kedah’s PAS government is supportive of V Arumugam who is alleged to have taken a second wife.

I also do not foresee the possibility of a three corner fight in this state constituency via insignificant parties such as AKIM or independent candidates.

Numbers trivia
Bukit Selambau would actually be the first state seat where a by – election has been called since general elections in March 8, 2008.

Bukit Gantang is the second parliamentary seat to be vacated as a result of the death of its parliamentarian. The first was Kuala Terengganu.

Having said all these, in the battle for both the hills the choice of representative would ultimately be decided by the electorate in these two hill constituencies.

1st August to Independence Day

1st August. Opposition Leader Dr Wan Azizah quit from her position yesterday, as Member of Parliament (MP) (Permatang Pauh) paving way for hubby cum de facto opposition leader Anwar Ibrahim to be in Parliament. With Independence Day looming in the horizon, the biggest concern is whether Anwar Ibrahim would be arrested. Would his independence be curtailed via bias use of the police force.

Election rule states that a by-election must be held within 60 days. I heard from reliable sources that Budget would be tabled in August prior to Aug 31st. August 29 to be exact. Based on that I am predicting that there would be two scenarios that would happen.

Scenario 1: Anwar would be arrested, charged and found guilty in the court of law got sodomy. This would dim his chances to stand for an election. Probably Wan Azizah will have to reprise her role as MP based on the strong ground support.

Scenario 2: Anwar stands for a by election and wins the seat hands down.
Deputy Premier Najib Razak for once admitted it would be tough to win by-election in Anwar's turf. Current hot favorite who may stand for Permatang Pauh is Ezam Noor. Common sense would tell you not to trap a lion in a lion's den. Premier cum UMNO president would need to find a scape goat to be sacrificed in at the lion's den. Annuar Musa was nore realistic wgen he commented that BN should simply boycott the by election. All this would most probably take place within Aug 1 to Independence Day that falls on 31 Aug. Only then can Anwar fullfil his dream of reclaiming Putrajaya on Sept 16.