Predictions for the 13th General Election

I am aware that I am writing this piece rather early. The 13th general election which is the first under the Najib administration will not take place until 2012 - 2013.

However, using the events of the past fifteen months as a yard stick, I think that the following would take place.

DAP would continue to rule Penang but would lose considerable majority votes.

PAS would lose the inroads that it had built in the multiracial constituencies in Selangor and other states. This is because the Erdogans would never be a force to reckon with within the party. Based on the current split that was caused by Hadi Awang's motion for unity government, the chances for non Muslims to have a say in the Islamist party is bleak.

PKR would lose more seats due to constant internal bickering. This is largely due to the fact that most Malay members have their origins in Umno and will continue to practice Umno's political culture.

Umno, MCA and MIC would gain more ground which would translate as regaining the seats that they have lost in the 12th general election.

As for the voters, the Malay votes would be predominantly for PAS and Umno. The Indian votes would be split with the entrance of Malaysian Makkal Sakthi party and PAHAM.

As for the Chinese they would continue to be the king makers.

Race base politics would continue to flourish since Malaysia has unfortunately been jinxed with it.

The marriage of convenience of Pakatan Rakyat component parties only seem to work best during elections, not when the opportunity to govern is given.

A good example is the 'N - trios' of Perak. Nizar, Ngeh Koo Ham and Nga Kor Ming seem to be a formidable. Unfortunately this bond is not shared by their colleagues in other states.

Another issue for the Pakatan coalition is their choice of candidates. PAS had made a major blunder in trading off the Pasir Mas parliamentary seat to Ibrahim Ali whereas PKR has erred in alloting the Kulim - Bandar Baharu parliamentary seat to Zulkifli Noordin.

Errors must be avoided to ensure the continued support of the people.

Would PAS - UMNO unholy matrimony materialize?

In the name of Malay unity and Islam. That is the catch phrase used by UMNO to court PAS following UMNO's loss of 4 states and 1 Federal Territory. Nik Aziz, PAS Spiritual Leader cum Menteri Besar of Kelantan who earlier said that the unholy alliance matrimony would not take place due to the bitter pill in 1974 now stated that PAS would consider if UMNO is willing to implement hudud law for starters.

It is definitely going to be interesting to hear PAS President Hadi Awang resolving the suspense on the possibility of UMNO - PAS unholy alliance in Perak following Perak UMNO head, Datuk Tajol Rosli Ghazali's proposal to make Perak the guinea pig.

Interestingly yesterday Ipoh timur PAS Youth chairman sent a press statement that chided Tajol ROsli for the proposal. He even told Tajol to stop dreaming.

If UMNO was truly sincere they should have made the proposal in Kedah where PAS commands the state cabinet instead of Perak. Apart from MB Nizar Jamaluddin, PAS only has one state Exco. Seat wise it only commands six state seats compared to DAP's 18.

I shall await patiently for Hadi Awang's decision.

Though the suspense is too much to bear....

Update: Hadi Awang has ruled out any form of cooperation with UMNO especially in forming governments but will continue talks with UMNO

Withering allies

There are some underground tones that the alliance of PKR, DAP and PAS is withering. The most obvious tell tale sign is the withdrawal Unit Amal during the Protes sponsored People's Assemblyon 6th July 2008. The Unit Amal happens to be unit the coordination of PAS Youth to coordinate security for the event. Senior leaders of PAS such as PAS Spiritual Leader Datuk Nik Aziz Nik Mat have come out with strong statements with regards to this issue. This has happened despite the fact that PROTES chairman is Dr Mohd Hatta Ramli (PAS-Kuala Krai).

On another hand, PAS has demanded that all four states under the Pakatan Rakyat use Islamic administrative measures as a guideline. Lately, Nik Aziz Nik Mat made a ruling that appointments and promotions of civil servants would be based on how pious they are, especially the head of departments.

PAS had won their 28 parliament seats to become the third opposition party by campaigning on issues that appealed across faiths and races.

On the other hand PKR de-facto leader has been embroiled in the sodomy scandal II. Thus Anwar Ibrahim has to concentrate on facing the issue at hand.

As for the DAP, they seem to be more adjustable with PKR as bed fellows instead of PAS.

Utusan Malaysia actually broke the story of the purported "Pangkor Treaty II" between Nizar Jamaluddin, the Perak Menteri Besar and the DAP. Utusan has made a great disservice to the Pakatan Rakyat by interviewing Nizar's brother. Apparently Nizar was not supposed to implement Islamic administration in Perak. From a political sense, there can be nothing much that the MB himself can do since Perak state government is majority DAP.

Anwar Ibrahim factor in PR

Li Tsin had already questioned the illogical scenario of the police report against Anwar Ibrahim for sodomy. I would like to look at it from a political perspective. Would Pakatan Rakyat(PR) be able strongly hold together?

The losers in this case would definitely be Abdullah Badawi and the BN government as pointed out by Ong Kian Meng and Oon Yeoh.

As for PR, the current status of it is similar to BBA a decade ago. The coalition has not been registered as the BN. There are no mechanisms to resolve differences as seen in the spate between Kedah MB Azizan (PAS)and Penang CM Guan Eng (DAP).

The strongest factor gluing all PKR, DAP and PAS is Anwar Ibrahim. Thus this new set of sodomy allegations against him has put the PR under the limelight instead of the BN that had been on their toes lately.