Predictions for the 13th General Election

I am aware that I am writing this piece rather early. The 13th general election which is the first under the Najib administration will not take place until 2012 - 2013.

However, using the events of the past fifteen months as a yard stick, I think that the following would take place.

DAP would continue to rule Penang but would lose considerable majority votes.

PAS would lose the inroads that it had built in the multiracial constituencies in Selangor and other states. This is because the Erdogans would never be a force to reckon with within the party. Based on the current split that was caused by Hadi Awang's motion for unity government, the chances for non Muslims to have a say in the Islamist party is bleak.

PKR would lose more seats due to constant internal bickering. This is largely due to the fact that most Malay members have their origins in Umno and will continue to practice Umno's political culture.

Umno, MCA and MIC would gain more ground which would translate as regaining the seats that they have lost in the 12th general election.

As for the voters, the Malay votes would be predominantly for PAS and Umno. The Indian votes would be split with the entrance of Malaysian Makkal Sakthi party and PAHAM.

As for the Chinese they would continue to be the king makers.

Race base politics would continue to flourish since Malaysia has unfortunately been jinxed with it.

The marriage of convenience of Pakatan Rakyat component parties only seem to work best during elections, not when the opportunity to govern is given.

A good example is the 'N - trios' of Perak. Nizar, Ngeh Koo Ham and Nga Kor Ming seem to be a formidable. Unfortunately this bond is not shared by their colleagues in other states.

Another issue for the Pakatan coalition is their choice of candidates. PAS had made a major blunder in trading off the Pasir Mas parliamentary seat to Ibrahim Ali whereas PKR has erred in alloting the Kulim - Bandar Baharu parliamentary seat to Zulkifli Noordin.

Errors must be avoided to ensure the continued support of the people.